Barasat Lok Sabha Elections: Banking on Muslim Votes, TMC Holds Slim Edge – News18

Barasat Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 42 parliamentary constituencies in West Bengal. It comprises the following assembly segments, all of which are held by the Trinamool Congress: Habra, Ashoknagar, Rajarhat New Town, Bidhannagar, Madhyamgram, Barasat and Deganga.

Current MP: Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar (TMC)

Top Contenders: Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar (TMC), Swapan Majumder (BJP)

Date of Polling: June 1, 2024 (Phase VII)

Political Dynamics

• TMC Banks on Minority Vote to Retain Barasat: The Trinamool Congress had won Barasat Lok Sabha constituency in 2019 by a margin of 1.1 lakh votes. It has retained its sitting MP, Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, who is now taking on BJP’s Swapan Majumdar. In terms of ground presence and campaign intensity, the TMC and BJP are evenly placed, with both parties working round-the-clock to secure a win.
• The TMC has a slight advantage going into the polls. However, as polling day approaches and with PM Modi campaigning for the BJP candidate here, the incumbent party’s prospects could take a hit. The TMC is disproportionately reliant on the Muslim voters of this constituency, which make up 27% of the total electorate.
• The Muslim vote is expected to head the TMC’s way lock, stock and barrel. This is, however, expected to give momentum to a reverse-polarisation among Hindus, especially the Matua community.
• The TMC is also going out of its way to lure the women voter with its promise of local development and upliftment, apart from the fact that the West Bengal government now pays monthly doles to women under the Lakhsmir Bhandar Scheme. The scheme is being well-appreciated by women voters not just in Barasat, but across West Bengal.
• However, the impact of Sandeshkhali and the disheartening stories of women being assaulted and allegedly raped there has hit the TMC’s perception as a women-friendly party across the state. This is because while the Sandeshkhali story was the cat that came out of the cupboard, voters in West Bengal know that the phenomenon is not limited to that area alone. It is a pervasive problem that affects women across the state.
• The TMC is also expected to take a hit from the fact that its District Secretary in North 24 Parganas and former West Bengal minister Jyotipriya Mallick is currently in judicial custody because of his alleged involvement in the multi-crore ration distribution scam. As such, he has not been able to campaign for the party, and his absence has indeed left the TMC with a difficult-to-fill vacuum on the ground.
• The TMC, which is expected to gain the entirety of the Muslim vote, could potentially benefit from the three-way fight underway in Barasat. The AISF’s decision to field a candidate from here has turned the election here into a four-cornered contest involving Trinamool Congress, BJP, AISF and the All-India Forward Bloc. The likely three-way division of anti-incumbency votes is a factor of comfort for the TMC this time, as it prevents the BJP from achieving near-complete Hindu consolidation in the constituency.
• Also working to the TMC’s advantage is the fact that the party has control over all the seven assembly segments falling under Barasat LS. This is an edge which the BJP can simply not compensate for, as TMC MLAs galvanise their individual support bases in favour of the Kakoli Dastidar.
• BJP Poses a Big Challenge: The BJP is giving the TMC a real run for its money. That being said, the fight in Barasat is close. The saffron party has fielded Swapan Majumdar from this constituency, who fasces a tough challenge wresting the seat from the TMC.
• For the BJP, winning Barasat will be special because it would have proven that despite unfavourable demography, the party was able to unite large number of Hindu voters under its banner. While the TMC relies on the minority vote bank, the BJP is hopeful that a counter-polarisation among Hindus will help its prospects.
• The Matuas are of critical importance for the BJP now. Their substantial presence in two Assembly constituencies here, namely Habra and Ashoknagar is set to benefit the BJP. Matuas are a Backward Class community of Hindus who came as refugees from Bangladesh. It is being anticipated that with the Citizenship Amendment Act having been notified, the Matuas are going to vote in large numbers for the BJP. To an extent, this will help BJP neutralise the Muslim consolidation in favour of the TMC.
• Also heartening for the BJP is that fact that its vote share has been on an upward trajectory in Barasat since 2014. In 2014, the BJP increased its vote share to 27.75% from a meagre 5.40% in 2009. In 2019, the saffron party further increased its vote share to 38.57%. This election too, the it is expected to add to its existing vote share.
• The Lakshmir Bhandar scheme appears to have emerged as the biggest obstacle to the BJP’s prospects in West Bengal this time, and Barasat is no exception. The party has gone from negating the impact of Mamata Banerjee’s scheme to now promising to raise the amount provided to women under it. BJP leaders are now promising to hike the monthly payout to Rs 3,000. That is a telltale sign of the impact this scheme has had on the ground.
• The BJP also faces the challenge of not having big leaders, apart from Suvendu Adhikari, Dilip Ghosh and Sukanta Majumdar, who can speak fluent and captivating Bangla. Adhikari, Ghosh and Majumdar are all important leaders who cannot restrict themselves to campaigning in Barasat alone. This has placed the BJP at a slight disadvantage, since most of its leaders flying in from Delhi cannot speak Bangla.
• Importantly, the Modi factor is alive and kicking in Barasat. Voters keenly watch out for statement made by the Prime Minister and take what he has to say seriously. There is no perceptible anger against him. In fact, the Modi factor is so pronounced that Mamata Banerjee is having to fight a defensive battle to ensure that the visible anti-incumbency against her and especially local TMC leaders does not negatively impact the party’s fortunes in this election.

Key Issues

• Sandeshkhali: The issue of Sandeshkhali has been raised time and again by the BJP, especially in Barasat. In one of PM’s last visit to the constituency in March this year, it was reported that buses of women impacted in Sandeshkhali were on the way to PM Modi’s rally in Barasat but were stopped enroute.
• It has become a major issue in the elections and will be playing a key role as both the regions fall in the North 24 Parganas district.
• Moreover, there have been claims by the people and the opposition that the state government has tried to suppress this issue. The transfer of the Barasat range DIG right after the violence in Sandeshkhali in February added fuel to the fire.
• Unemployment: Barasat, a constituency with a significant minority population, has seen improvements in village road networks, infrastructure, and the public distribution system under the state government. The government has also provided Swasthya Sathi Health cards.
• However, the lack of major industries in the area has led to dissatisfaction among residents, as tailoring, zari artisanship, construction work, and jewellery designing remain the primary occupations. The limited employment opportunities continue to be a concern. This has also led to massive migration of population to nearby industrial hubs and urban centres of Baraackpore, Howrah, or Kolkata.
• Connectivity: Road connectivity remains a major issue in the rural regions of Barasat due to a lack of all-weather roads. Narrow pucca roads lead to the village’s interiors. This impedes intra-regional connectivity in the region. Rains wash away the roads in monsoon, which impedes connectivity in the rural regions.
• A lack of adequate healthcare infrastructure also forces the rural population to travel to the urban region, which is hampered by the lack of better roads in the region. Although the state government has worked towards providing people better road connectivity in the constituency, more has been demanded by the people.
• Healthcare and Education: There is a lack of educational facilities that can provide adequate education. The level of education provided by government schools is low and the private schools are too expensive for the daily wage labourers.
• Moreover, even the hospital infrastructure in the region lacks basic facilities. If people fall sick, they have to travel to Kolkata for medical care. People have voiced their concern but the state government has remained indifferent to their needs.
• Drinking Water: Drinking water is a major issue in Barrackpore, studies have shown that groundwater quality in the region is quite hard and is having an excess amount of magnesium. Moreover, piped water provided by the municipality is not adequate and has not reached all of the households. Issues of water pipes bursting has also created issues of unavailability of water in many areas.
• Waterlogging: Waterlogging has been a major issue in Barrackpore. Inadequate sewage systems have failed to keep up with the rising population. Moreover, the sewage system is old and crumbling as the city gets waterlogged even after short spurts of rain. This causes major issues for the citizens as people remain stuck in their houses as the city remains paralysed for days. Moreover, dumped garbage on the streets enters people home with the water creating unhygienic conditions and a breeding ground for mosquitoes.

Demographics

• Total Voters: 17,16,009
• SC Voters: 326,042 (19%)
• ST Voters: 25,740 (1.5%)
• Muslims: 463,848 (27%)
• Rural Voters: 607,467 (35.4%)
• Urban Voters: 1,108,542 (64.6%)
• Voter Turnout in 2019: 81.1%

Infrastructure Development

• Metro: The Yellow line or the Metro line 4 is a new line covering a distance of 16.6 kms. It will connect Noapara to Barasat. The metro line is under construction.
• Railway Infrastructure: A new station building has been constructed at Sanhati Halt stations at a cost of Rs. 0.40 crore.
• The signalling system at Barasat station has been improved at a cost of Rs. 6.90 crore, with a slot system at Barasat/NIC cabin replacing a PF at a cost of Rs. 0.71 crore.
• Additionally, the signalling system at Guma station has been improved by installing an electronic interlocking system at a cost of Rs. 5.77 crore. The signalling system at Ashokenagar station has been revamped by installing a panel interlocking system at a cost of Rs. 3.24 crore.
• The constituency has also seen the construction of additional platform shelters at Barasat at a cost of Rs. 0.8 crore, and the installation of LED luminaries at Barasat at a cost of Rs. 0.961 crore.
• Barasat-Barajaguli 4 Laning: A four-lane expressway linking New Town to Barasat via Madhyamgram is under way. An allocation of Rs. 553.12 crore has been approved under the National Highways (Original) plan along with the Krishnagar-Berhampore four-laning.