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The exit polls this year have been marred by inaccuracies in predicting results, especially in the Lok Sabha and Haryana elections, leading to public apologies from the polling companies
The Haryana Assembly election results this year sparked a row over the system of counting of votes. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar had said media needs to introspect about the expectations that arise due to the exit polls. (PTI Photo)
Maharashtra and Jharkhand voted on Wednesday to choose the members of the respective Legislative Assembly. The results for both the state assemblies will be announced on November 23. But the exit poll results are expected to be released in some time after the voting ends in both the states.
The exit polls this year have been marred by inaccuracies in predicting results, especially in the Lok Sabha and Haryana elections, leading to public apologies from the polling companies.
Let us first understand what are exit polls, what went wrong for them this year and what were their predictions in 2019 assembly elections.
What Are Exit Polls?
Exit polls is a survey based on interviews taken of voters when they leave (or exit) the polling booths after casting their votes. While exit polls are not always accurate, they provide an idea about the voter’s choice swing and the results one can expect.
What Is The Methodology?
Exit polls depend on a few factors: the type of sampling methods, margins of error and voter honesty and behaviour.
Sampling: Polling organisations select a diverse set of polling stations across different regions for representativeness. The selection aims to mirror the demographic and political composition of the broader electorate.
Questionnaire: Voters are asked a series of questions, focusing on their voting choices. Additional questions might include demographic information such as age, gender, race, and socioeconomic status, as well as factors that influenced their vote.
Data Collection: Trained pollsters stand outside selected polling stations and randomly approach voters to participate in the survey. To maintain anonymity and encourage honesty, voters often fill out the survey privately.
Data Analysis: The collected data is then analysed to project the overall voting trends. Statistical adjustments account for various factors, such as turnout discrepancies and demographic imbalances.
Predictions: Based on the analysed data, projections are made regarding which candidates or parties are likely to win in different constituencies.
Margin of Error: The results are presented with an estimated margin of error, indicating the degree of confidence in the predictions.
Media Reporting: The results of exit polls are usually released by media organisations, either immediately after voting ends or at designated times as per election regulations.
Disclaimers: Reports often include disclaimers about the limitations of exit polls, emphasising that they are estimates rather than definitive results.
What Exit Polls Predicted In 2019 Maharashtra & Jharkhand Polls
In the Maharashtra assembly election 2019, the BJP won 105 seats, the undivided Shiv Sena won 56 seats, the undivided Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) secured 54 seats and the Congress bagged 44 seats. India Today-Axis had predicted 166-194 seats for the NDA (Shiv Sena and BJP) and 72-90 seats for the UPA (Congress-NCP).
News18-IPSOS predicted 243 seats for the NDA and 41 for the UPA. Republic-Jan Ki Baat predicted 216-230 seats for the NDA and 52-59 seats for the NDA. Times Now predicted 230 seats for the NDA and 48 for the UPA.
ABP News-C Voter predicted 204 seats for the NDA and 69 for the UPA.
In the 2019 Jharkhand election, the UPA, comprising Congress and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, won 46 seats while the BJP won 25.
The India Today-Axis My India gave an edge to the JMM-Congress-led UPA. It said the UPA would win 43 seats, whereas the BJP would win 27.
ABP-Voter predicted a hung assembly. It said the UPA would win 35 seats whereas the BJP would win 32 seats. Times Now predicted 44 seats for the UPA and 28 for the BJP.
How Exit Polls Got It All Wrong In 2024 Lok Sabha Elections
Almost all of the exit polls released on June 1 forecast the BJP and its allies would win more than 350 seats in the Lok Sabha. The final results put the NDA tally at just 293 seats. The Congress-led INDIA bloc sprung a surprise with 234 seats.
Exit poll predictions also have a bearing on the stock market. A favourable prediction for the ruling NDA had pushed the benchmark equity index to a record on June 3. However, on the result day, the market battered, clocking its worst crash in four years.
Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India broke down on national television on June 4 election results day after he was repeatedly questioned about his inaccurate forecasts showing the BJP-led coalition would win 361-401 seats.
CVoter founder Yashwant Deshmukh said the company was accurate in predicting the share of votes won by the parties at the state level, but that projections on seat numbers were wrong, especially in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and West Bengal, where the BJP lost substantial support, as mentioned in a report by The Frontline.
CVoter had predicted the BJP-led alliance would win 353-383 seats nationally. The sample size of its survey was 4,31,182.
What Went Wrong In Haryana Exit Polls This Year?
Almost all exit polls had predicted a clear majority for the Congress in Haryana, giving the party somewhere between 50 and 62 seats in the 90-seat Assembly.
The Congress headquarters were decked up, with party leaders and workers already started distributing jalebis and laddoos as early trends showed them winning. However, after a few hours, tables turned and the BJP stormed back to power with 48 seats.
Axis My India had predicted a sweep for the Congress by pegging its tally at 53-65 seats. The BJP were expected to win 18-28 while others, that include Jannayak Janata Party, Indian National Lok Dal and Aam Aadmi Party, were predicted to win bag three to eight seats.
The India Today-C Voter survey gave Congress 50-58 seats, and the BJP 20-28 seats and others 10-16, while Dainik Bhaskar’ predicted the Congress getting 44-54 seats, the BJP 15-29 seats and others winning 5-15 seats in the Haryana Assembly.
What The Election Commission Has Said About Exit Polls
The results of the Haryana Assembly election this year sparked controversies over the system of counting of votes. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar had said the media needs to introspect about the expectations that arise due to the exit polls.
“Because of expectations set by exit polls, a huge distortion is created. This is an issue that needs self-introspection, especially for electronic media,” he said as he called on self-regulatory bodies such as the National Broadcasters Association (NBSA) to regulate the media entities.
He clarified that the Election Commission does not regulate the exit polls, and pointed out that a trend has emerged in the recent years where news channels start displaying results from 8 am.
“If we look at the whole picture, two-three things are happening concurrently. At first, exit poll results are shown without declaring the sample size, the places where the survey was conducted, and how the results were arrived at. If the figures do not match with the actual results, what is the pollster’s responsibility… There is an urgent need to look at these aspects stringently,” he had said while announcing Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly election schedules.
The CEC said the mismatch between the exit poll figures and actual results could sometimes lead to serious issues. “The gap between expectation and achievement is nothing but frustration. On this issue, our hands are tied. However, a brainstorming by the stakeholders is urgently required and I am sure self-correction will be done,” he said.
History Of Exit Polls
The Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Studies (CSDS) was the pioneer in developing indigenous exit polls in the 1960s. However, it wasn’t until the 1980s that media polls surveys became prominent.
The Indian Institute of Public Opinion conducted the first election poll in India, during the second general election conducted in 1957. The survey was headed by Eric de Costa; however, one might say that this was not a full-fledged exit poll, as per The Frontline report.
In 1980, Prannoy Roy and Ashok Lahiri conducted the first exit poll for the India Today magazine, which they repeated during the 1984 election. In 1996, an exit poll was conducted by Doordarshan, by journalist Nalini Singh, with the fieldwork and data gathering carried out by CSDS.
In the US, the first exit poll took place in 1936. It was conducted by George Gallup and Claude Robinson in New York City, where they asked voters exiting the polling booths which presidential candidate they had voted for. Through this data, they estimated that Franklin D. Roosevelt would win the election, which he did. After this, exit polls became popular in other countries too. Britain had its first exit poll in 1937 and France in 1938.
