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Maharashtra exit polls: A look at what was predicted after the 2019 assembly elections and how many seats the BJP, Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena actually won
Devendra Fadnavis (left) and Uddhav Thackeray after the 2019 win of the BJP-Sena combine. (PTI File)
Maharashtra voted for the 2024 assembly elections on November 20, and the results for the 288 seats will be known on November 23. A total of 145 seats are needed for a majority.
Exit polls have predicted a lead for the Mahayuti. ABP-Matrize has predicted 150-170 seats for Mahayuti and 110-130 for MVA. P-MarQ has predicted 137-157 seats for the Mahayuti and 126-146 for the MVA. Chanakya has predicted 152-160 seats for Mahayuti and 130-138 for the MVA. While Poll Diary has predicted 137-157 seats for Mahayuti, the projection for MVA is 126-146.
Can you rely completely on exit polls? Let’s take a look at what was predicted in 2019 and what happened.
First things first, the 2019 polls were fought between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena alliance, and the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance. In 2024, the state polls were fought between Mahayuti (BJP, Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP) and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) (Congress, Sena UBT and NCP Sharad Pawar).
2019 VS 2024: SEATS CONTESTED
In 2019, the BJP had contested 152 seats, while Shiv Sena and the other alliance partners contested 12. The Congress and NCP had contested 125 each, with 38 seats for others.
In 2024, as part of Mahayuti, the BJP is contesting 149 seats, Shinde Sena 81, NCP (Ajit Pawar) 59. IN case of MVA, the Congress has fielded 101 candidates, Shiv Sena (UBT) 95, and NCP (SP) 86.
THE 2019 PREDICTIONS
Overall, the exit polls had predicted that the BJP would win 109-124 seats and Sena 57-70 seats, more than 200 for the combine. The Congress was expected to win 72-90 seats and the NCP 40-50 seats.
- The India Today-Axis exit poll had projected 166-194 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena and 72-90 for the Congress-NCP alliance.
- The exit poll by News18-IPSOS gave the BJP a near-majority on its own by predicting a whopping 142 seats for the party and 102 for its ally Shiv Sena. The Congress and NCP will bag 17 and 22 seats only, it had predicted.
- The ABP-C Voter had predicted 204 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena and 69 for the Congress-NCP, while the corresponding figures by Times Now were 230 and 48.
- As per Republic-Jan Ki Baat exit polls, the BJP alliance was expected to win 223 seats, while the Congress alliance was likely to bag 54 seats. The others could win 11 seats.
- The exit poll conducted by Neta App had predicted 206 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena combine in Maharashtra.
THE 2019 MAHARASHTRA ASSEMBLY POLL RESULTS
While the prediction that the BJP-Sena combine would be ahead of others came true, they couldn’t cross the 200 mark or get a landslide win. The exit polls overestimated the performance of the BJP-Sena, while underestimating the Congress-NCP.
In 2019, the BJP had won 105 seats, Shiv Sena 56, NCP 54, Congress 44, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) 3, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) 2, Samajwadi Party (SP) 2, CPIM and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena 1 and the rest by smaller parties.
While the BJP got the lead, the numbers were such that the other three parties together, too, were able to cross the majority mark. This resulted in the formation of the MVA combine, which ruled the state for 2.5 years, until Eknath Shinde engineered a split in the Sena, leading to the collapse of the government.
