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The elections are a make-or-break for both sides with the last five years witnessing significant political realignments in the state as regional behemoths Shiv Sena and NCP saw splits
In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP emerged as the largest party with 105 seats, followed by Shiv Sena with 56 and Congress with 44. In the 2014 elections, the BJP won 122 seats, Shiv Sena secured 63, and Congress took 42 seats. (Representational image/PTI)
Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena are in direct contests in 47 Maharashtra assembly seats, while Ajit Pawar’s NCP and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) are competing with each other in 38 seats for the elections to be held on November 20, poll data analysed by News18 shows.
The results for all 288 seats in the assembly will be declared on November 23.
Sena versus Sena
Mumbai, the epicentre of Sena politics will see some high-profile clashes between the two camps. The Shinde-led faction has fielded former union minister Milind Deora against Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aaditya in the key constituency of Worli. Aaditya also faces competition from Sandeep Deshpande of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, led by his estranged uncle Raj Thackeray.
The Uddhav faction is Taking on Shinde’s candidacy in Kopri Pachpakhadi in Thane, through Kedar Dighe, nephew of the late Shiv Sena leader Anand Dighe, a mentor to Shinde.
NCP versus NCP
Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) will face off in 38 seats. 20 of these are in western Maharashtra.
A big battle will be held in Baramati, a traditional stronghold of the Pawar family. Here, Ajit Pawar will face his nephew Yugendra Pawar. Ajit has held the Baramati seat since 1991, which makes it a prestige battle for him.
Three NCP versus NCP fights will take place in Nashik district. In the Yeola constituency, OBC leader and state cabinet minister Chhagan Bhujbal is up against Maratha leader Manikrao Shinde of the NCP (SP). The contest assumes significance given the ongoing Maratha-OBC polarisation due to reservation-related issues.
In other regions, including the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), the Konkan coast, central Marathwada, and eastern Vidarbha, there are just five seats where the two NCP factions will directly compete.
Poll players
The ruling Mahayuti alliance comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). On the other side, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) consists of Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP), Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP), and the Peasants and Workers Party of India.
Within the Mahayuti, the BJP is contesting the highest number of seats at 148, followed by Shinde’s Shiv Sena with 85 seats and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction with 55. The MVA lineup has Congress fielding candidates in 102 seats, Shiv Sena (UBT) in 94, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) in 85. The SP has nominated candidates for nine seats, while the Peasants and Workers Party of India is contesting four.
Other parties like Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) could influence outcomes in certain constituencies. The MNS is contesting 135 seats, the BSP is fielding candidates in all 288 constituencies, and the VBA is contesting 110 seats.
Smaller but notable parties also include the Mahadev Jankar-led Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP), Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party, and Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). The RSP is running in 151 seats, Azad’s party in 40, and AIMIM in 16.
Past elections
In the general elections held in May this year, the MVA bagged 31 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state while the NDA was restricted to 17 seats.
A victory in the recent Haryana elections, however, appeared to have turned the tide in favour of the BJP-led Mahayuti, re-energising its cadre and allowing the party to recalibrate its strategy for the Assembly polls.
The MVA, on the other hand, was seen struggling on the issue of seat-sharing and the chief ministerial face. However, the coalition has exuded confidence about winning the elections and forming a government in the state.
The elections are a make-or-break for both sides with the last five years witnessing significant political realignments in the state as regional behemoths Shiv Sena and NCP saw splits.
In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP emerged as the largest party with 105 seats, followed by Shiv Sena with 56 and Congress with 44. In the 2014 elections, the BJP won 122 seats, Shiv Sena secured 63, and Congress took 42 seats.
