Srinagar Lok Sabha Elections 2024: NC, PDP in Close Contest as Key Kashmir Seat Leaves Behind Turbulent Past – News18

The Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency, which will vote in the fourth phase of the Lok Sabha elections on May 13, has witnessed a vibrant political revival in the run-up to polling. The downtown especially, which used to be a stronghold of the banned Al Umar Mujahideen (AuM) terrorist group and where kidnappings were the order of the day in early 1990s, is a completely different place now as it is abuzz with political rallies and activity.

Not only this, the political landscape has also significantly changed since the abrogation of Article 370 with the BJP gaining ground. During campaigning, former chief minister Omar Abdullah orchestrated a bold move by hosting a rally for his National Conference candidate. So much was the enthusiasm that the security forces had a tough time managing the crowd at the NC rally hosted at a park in the Tibetan colony, just meters away from the historic Jamia Masjid, a focal point for Mirwaiz Umar Farooq’s moderate Hurriyat Conference.

In Srinagar, however, the National Conference faces stiff competition from the PDP’s Waheed Para. The party has been mainly focussing on holding street meetings in the area. This upsurge in political engagement underscores the evolving dynamics of the area, moving from a turbulent past to a more engaged and politically active tomorrow.

The surge in political activities in a region once plagued by terrorism underlined a significant shift towards a more politically active future. Srinagar is presently represented by Farooq Abdullah of the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference.

This time, the high-stakes contest has attracted a diverse array of candidates from various political parties and independent groups, each vying to capture the imagination of the electorate with their respective agendas and promises.

The prominent candidates are Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi of the National Conference (NC) and Waheed-ur-Rehman Para of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). J&K Apni Party’s Muhammad Ashraf Mir, Democratic Progressive Azad Party’s Amir Bhat, J&K National Panthers Party (BHIM) candidate Hakikat Singh, Loktantrik Party’s Rubina Akhter and 18 Independents are also in the fray.

Changed political landscape since abrogation of Article 370

The NC presently holds all three Lok Sabha seats. The party has been threatening to go solo and is banking on the dynasty’s leadership to win the public support.

PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti has been calling for a united front against the Centre. But, in recent talks with the NC and Congress, the party failed to land a deal in its favour. Moreover, the PDP has seen a sharp decline since 2019 as dozens of its leaders have left the party.

The BJP, meanwhile, is gaining in Srinagar. Several key NC leaders, including the Kathua district president, have joined the BJP in a jolt to the Farooq Abdullah-led party in the Jammu region. Many supporters and district office-bearers also made the switch.

The BJP has also won 75 seats in the district development council (DDC) polls. Its inclusive approach and the ground-level impact of the central government’s welfare schemes have worked in the party’s favour. But, how much of this will translate into votes in the Lok Sabha elections is yet to be seen.

Two prominent pahadi leaders – Shehnaz Ganai and Mushtaq Bukhari – joined the BJP following in the footsteps of big names such as Abdul Qayoom Mir and Iqbal Malik. The saffron party has made a significant impact with government schemes and development efforts, which has made up partially for its “anti-Muslim” image in the state.

However, despite increasing support, the question of voting for the BJP is influenced by religious leanings, which play against the party’s favour.

Here are the key issues in the Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency:

• Air pollution: Srinagar’s air quality index (AQI) entered the ‘poor’ category, especially in the mornings and evenings when the temperature drops during the winter. This is due to fuel burning, including biomass.
• Poor infrastructure development: Scattered, messy construction of residential and commercial zones. This is compounded by the continuous influx of people from other districts.
• Civic issues: People are facing problems in private residential colonies, including drainage, drinking water supply, road connectivity, lack of transport facilities, healthcare, and schools.
• Power crisis during winter: The city fails to meet the high demand for power during sub-zero temperatures when electrical heating systems are used widely.
• Drinking water scarcity: In the summer, several places in Kashmir face drinking water shortage owing to dry weather conditions and heat waves.
• Smart meters: There has been a public agitation against the installation of ‘smart meters’ due to perceived unfairness and lack of action against big defaulters. Smart meters track electricity use and forward the bill to the customer, which in turn must be paid in order for the power supply to continue. The state is used to a practice of “not paying the bill” or paying it in part. The administration’s efforts to get people to pay electricity bills have not been received well. In fact, asserting that 1.30 crore people of Jammu and Kashmir were the priority of his administration, Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha announced last year to waive off the power bills of poor people, if they are unable to pay it.
• Inadequate drainage: The drainage system leads to flooding and inconvenience during rainfall.
• Lack of basic infrastructure: There is no permanent bus stand, which causes a lot of inconvenience to passengers and students. There are parking issues in both civil lines and downtown areas affecting traffic movement and business activities.
• Solid waste management: There is a need for a new dumping site due as the existing one is overflowing and poses sufficient health risks.

Here are the key state issues:

• Drop in terror and violence: This is the main plank of the Narendra Modi-led government as it seeks to make inroads into the Valley. The ministry of home affairs has listed some achievements like 69 per cent drop in militancy-related incidents; no stone-pelting incidents in 2023; drop in civilian deaths by 81 per cent; killings of security personnel dropped by 47 per cent; zero tolerance policy towards terrorism.
• ‘Naya Kashmir’: Kashmir has transformed since the abrogation of Article 370. The state’s political landscape has significantly changed while the security situation has improved and tourism has taken off. The economy is improving with the GSDP doubled to more than Rs 2.25 lakh crore from Rs 1 lakh crore. In three years, Jammu and Kashmir got Rs 84,544 crore investment proposals, with the actual investment at Rs 2,518 crore. Moreover, government funds for infrastructure and welfare schemes are pouring in, ensuring a promising future for the Valley.
• Restoring statehood: All opposition parties have demanded that J&K’s statehood must be restored. The Centre has agreed to do so only after the assembly elections. In December 2023, union home minister Amit Shah said statehood will be restored only at an appropriate time.
• Assembly elections in 2024: The Supreme Court has set a deadline of September 2024 for the Election Commission to hold assembly polls. The government is keen on conducting elections between September and November. It initially considered conducting the polls alongside the Lok Sabha election but the 2019 experience did not favour such a proposal, with the Centre citing hurdles in arranging adequate forces for deployment. There are other electoral concerns as well. The Gujjar-Bakarwal tribes migrate in the summer and return to their base in the winter. They will be a crucial constituency, with nine assembly seats reserved for ST in J&K for the first time. These factors are likely to be applicable even in 2024. Such a scenario may mean elections will be held in J&K along with Haryana and Maharashtra in September and October.
• Power shortage: The UT faces an active power crisis due to poor infrastructure and output. This winter, Kashmir saw its worst power crisis in years. The reported daily power cuts of 12 to 16 hours have affected the lives of more than 70 lakh people. The UT has a requirement of about 2,600 MW of electricity. But, the power supply to the Kashmir division is 1,200 MW while it is 900 MW to Jammu. There is a deficit of about 500 MW.
• ST status to pahadis: The new law granting tribal status to pahadis has angered Gujjars and Bakarwals. There were widespread demonstrations by the two communities against the inclusion of four new groups in the state’s ST list. Gujjars and Bakarwals, the dominant ST groups in the UT, see this as potentially diluting their political empowerment. The Scheduled Tribes Order (Amendment) Bill, 2024, which seeks to add four communities – Gadda Brahmin, Koli, Paddari Tribe, and Pahari Ethnic Group – to the list of STs in J&K, was passed in the Lok Sabha in January. This bill seeks to add the pahadi-speaking community to the ST list, enabling them to access a 10 per cent reservation. The community has long sought recognition as ST, with this demand originating in 1975.
• Unemployment: The rate of unemployment in the age group of 15 to 29 years is 18.3 per cent, as per the MHA. The ministry also said more than 29,000 vacancies have been filled in J&K after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. The Centre has pushed government recruitment drives and a number of self-employment schemes like Mission Youth, Rural Livelihood Mission, Himayat, PMEGP, Avsar, Tejaswani are being implemented for providing employment opportunities
• Infrastructure development: Kashmir has seen a significant boost in infrastructure development over the past five years. This has been largely perceived positively and is something that the UT and Centre can bank on as an achievement. This includes the Delhi-Amritsar-Katra Expressway, PM Gram Sadak Yojana, rural development through NABARD schemes, MoRTH projects, first rail line to Kashmir, expansion of Srinagar airport terminal among others.

Voter demographic

Population

City: 12,19,516

Urban agglomeration population: 12,36,829

Gender

Male: 53%

Female: 47%

Sex ratio: 888 females per 1,000 males (city) and 880 females per 1,000 males (urban agglomeration)

Literacy

City and urban agglomeration average literacy rate: 71% (national average is 74.04%)

Religion

Muslims: 95% (11,57,044)

Hindus: 4% (42,442)

Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains: 1%

Caste-based Population

SC: 0.1% (1,068)

ST: 0.7% (8,935)