In the Lok Sabha election of 2024, the holy city of Kashi stands immersed in the political hue of saffron while the opposition throws in the towel with few ideas to sell, and even lesser appetite for hefty experiments against the gargantuan manifestation of Modi magic. As Varanasi gears up for polling day on June 1, here’s a rundown of the transformed political dynamics in this constituency.
A Mega Victory on the Cards
Varanasi is coloured in saffron this election as it has been in the past decade ever since the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi decided to contest from the seat in 2014. It is to be noted that Varanasi has been a BJP bastion since 1991 with the Congress having breached it only once in 2004. But the magnitude of the BJP’s performance grew exponentially with the prime minister stepping into the fray.
In the 2019 elections, Prime Minister Modi retained the seat with a lead of 4.8 lakh votes in 2019, up from 3.7 lakh votes in 2014, registering one of the highest winning margins in the country. In 2024, with the prime minister on the ballot one more time, a similar mega victory is on the cards in what is going to be a one-sided election and the only question on voters’ minds is what would be the margin of Modi’s win. With Modi headed towards a hat trick in Varanasi, the BJP is campaigning on the slogan ‘Abki Baar, 10 Lakh Paar’ calling on the electorate to take Modi’s total vote share to 10 lakh votes compared to 6.75 lakh votes or 63% of the total vote in 2019.
In terms of development, Varanasi has undergone a sea change with the Kashi Vishwanath corridor, the construction of ring roads, the enhancement of road and bridge networks, the establishment of a cancer hospital and a cricket stadium. The focus on cleanliness, especially in Kashi, has won hearts across the constituency. Moreover, the removal of overhead power cables has enhanced the city’s aesthetic appeal, leading to improved living conditions and safety standards.
The penetration of central government and state government schemes in this constituency is also at its best. Lakhs have received benefits under the PM Awas Yojana, Ayushman Bharat Scheme, PM Kisan Samman Nidhi and so on. Connectivity has improved, and many may say that Varanasi has been put on the map of the country, with Vande Bharat rail connections, flights and expressways prioritising this previously neglected seat.
The effects of these changes have been felt across the Purvanchal region which is an added boost for the overall favourable sentiment for PM Modi. Moreover, tourists have flocked in from around the country and the world to witness this rejuvenation of this old city and its ancient heritage.
It has ensured that development takes place in Varanasi in harmony and collaboration with its spiritual aspects, which further draws voters towards the BJP. It is in PM Modi’s religious and spiritual persona that most Hindu voters in Varanasi see their ideal representative. It’s also a widespread belief that Varanasi would not have seen such fast-paced development and restoration of ancient glory had it not been for PM Modi’s personal interest in the constituency.
Apart from visiting the seat about 45 times since taking over, one significant observation noted here is that the Prime Minister has deployed a slew of bureaucrats to perform duties relevant to his office, tasked to maintain communications with the public and solve their problems at their request. Further, the Yogi Adityanath-led state government and the BJP’s four MLAs in the constituency which hosts five assembly segments also bolster the prime minister’s position. The promise of the double-engine government has reformed the political landscape of Varanasi.
In fact, the bond between Modi and Varanasi’s electorate is so potent that a notable sentiment among voters here is that the prime minister need not even show up for a political campaign to register a victory. He enjoys tremendous popularity transcending caste lines and has even garnered admiration from members of the local Muslim community, especially the poorer sections, who have received a range of government benefits.
Ultimately, the BJP is confident in its prospects here and is fully prepared for a Modi-led roadshow leading up to polling day, which may be sufficient for securing a resounding victory.
Political Winds From Ayodhya
Varanasi is also deeply influenced by the transformation witnessed in the religious, political and infrastructural contours of Ayodhya. The swift construction of the Ram Mandir and the grand Pran Pratishtha ceremony has enthused voters who owe a sense of gratification to the BJP’s involvement in the Ram Mandir movement, and the prime minister’s personal stake in developments.
Not only this, but these events have stirred up hopes with regards to the Gyanvapi Masjid dispute which has already been sent to court, and is expected to be represented ably in favour of Hindu claimants. Devotees trust that under the current dispensation there will be no tampering or interference in the investigations ordered by the court. Moreover, they also trust that the proceedings will progress peacefully, without communal tensions spilling into the streets under the watch of the Modi-Yogi double engine government.
Opposition Out of Ideas
If the combined opposition were serious about its rivalry with PM Modi, one would expect them to put up a formidable front in his turf, but that is not the case so far. While supporters are keen on turning up on polling day to show their endorsement of the Prime Minister’s performance so far, there are not many critics of the work done even in the opposition camps. Instead, their politics relies on religious polarisation, and issues of unemployment and inflation.
The primary opposition to PM Modi here is posed by the INDIA bloc candidate Ajay Rai. Rai, currently the chief of Uttar Pradesh Congress, has previously fought twice in the Lok Sabha polls against the PM, scoring a vote share of 14.38% in 2019. In alliance with the Samajwadi party which scored 18.4% of the vote the same year, Rai can expect a noticeable boost but with caveats. In 2019, SP candidate Shalini Yadav benefited from the alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) which is not in the INDIA bloc this time. The BSP has in fact fielded a Muslim candidate, Syyed Niyaz Ali, who will further compete for INDIA bloc’s core vote bank. With the BSP contesting independently, and a lack of consolidation of Muslim and Yadav votes, there is no considerable potential in the INDIA bloc’s performance, owing to which it seems to have already thrown in the towel as far as its poll strategy goes.
Rai comes with an interesting political backstory. His journey commenced as a ‘karyakarta’ of the Hindu nationalist outfit Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), following which he assumed the role of convener of BJP’s student wing, Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP). Rai, a five-time MLA, subsequently secured election to the UP Assembly three times on a BJP ticket – in 1996, 2002, and 2007, representing the Kolasla constituency in Varanasi. His departure from the saffron camp came after being denied a Lok Sabha ticket in 2009. Rai aspired to contest the election from Varanasi; however, when senior BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi was given the ticket, Rai resigned from the party. He then contested from Varanasi on a Samajwadi Party (SP) ticket but was unsuccessful. Rai joined the Congress in 2012 and won the newly-formed Pindra seat in Varanasi, before finally being pitted against Modi from the Lok Sabha seat.
Previously, when the grand alliance of parties was forming up, Shiv Sena (UT faction) leader Sanjay Raut had mused that Priyanka Gandhi would win the election from Varanasi if she decides to contest. However, while this idea sparked the imagination of the local Congress unit, no such decision materialised, as the party opted for a non-experimental approach, showing no inclination to challenge the prime minister, even symbolically.
The symbolic approach may have died with the experience of Arvind Kejriwal in 2014 who scored 20.34% of the vote at the peak of his popularity, bearing no match for Modi’s landslide victory.
When it comes to the opposition’s campaign, Ajay Rai finds himself isolated, with minimal support from national leaders to put up a solid front against Modi. Varanasi is yet to see a fiery Rahul Gandhi or Akhilesh Yadav-led campaign rally. In such circumstances, Rai has been pushing the ‘migrant’ and ‘outsider’ narrative asserting that the Ganga-Jamuni culture of Kashi would be saved only when his gargantuan rival is shown the door by the electorate.
In January, the Congress raked up a case of molestation allegedly at the hands of BJP IT-cell office bearers to protest against the party leadership and demand an apology from the prime minister himself. Joining the protests, Congress workers clashed with the police but were stopped from reaching their destination. Ultimately, the issue fizzled out before taking up a political form.
Platform For Publicity
Moreover, in terms of political opposition, the constituency is largely seen as a high profile ticket to fame for those seeking publicity and recognition. Candidates have flocked in to file their nominations. The most notable names who have made the headlines for the sheer eccentricity of their decision to join the poll fray include comedian Shyam Rangeela, who has added a new dimension to mirroring the prime minister after he found a name in the business of mimicking him. Another name is Nirmohi Akhara’s Himangi Sakhi from the transgender community, who seeks to draw government attention to the rights of transgenders. She has told the media that she respects and admires the prime minister but wishes to contest to highlight the issues of the Kinnar community.
All in all, with less than three weeks to go before polling day, it remains uncertain whether Varanasi will be fiercely contested or not. One thing, however, is clear that the opposition is demotivated and lacks the enthusiasm to take on this fortress as they view this battle to be lost already. The only question, therefore, ringing through everyone’s mind is, “What will be the margin of Modi’s victory?”
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